From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.